As November closes, the Russia-Ukraine war has entered another dangerous phase on both the battlefield and diplomatic front.
Russia is intensifying winter strikes on Ukraine’s cities and energy grid, while fierce ground fighting continues around Pokrovsk in Donetsk.
At the same time, a controversial US-brokered peace plan has been cut from 28 to 19 points, triggering anger in Kyiv and Europe.
Day 1,371 of the full-scale invasion ends with no ceasefire in sight and civilians again paying the highest price.
Front lines: Pokrovsk battle defines the eastern front
On the ground, the fiercest battles remain around the city of Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad in Donetsk region.
Russian forces are trying to encircle Ukrainian units there, pushing from several directions and attacking nearby villages and road junctions.
Ukrainian troops have brought in elite assault units to stabilise the front and launch counterattacks inside the city.
However, Meduza’s open-source analysis says supply routes into Myrnohrad are extremely fragile, and some units risk partial encirclement.
Further south and east, Russian forces are pressing towards the fortified town of Hulyaipole and trying to improve positions near the Siverskyi Donets River.
Analysts warn that if Russia secures more ground there, key cities like Sloviansk could face heavier drone and artillery fire.
Military experts describe Moscow’s current approach as a “war of attrition”, using many smaller assaults to grind down Ukraine’s smaller army.
Russia believes it can absorb higher casualties over time, while Ukraine struggles with manpower and ammunition shortages.
Missile and drone barrages hit Kyiv and energy grid
This week Russia launched one of its largest recent combined missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and other regions.
On 25 November, waves of Shahed drones and Kinzhal ballistic missiles struck residential areas and energy sites across the capital.
At least seven people were killed in Kyiv alone, with dozens more injured, including children.
Apartment blocks, a supermarket warehouse and other civilian buildings suffered heavy damage, and thousands of residents lost power and water.
Ukraine’s Energy Ministry described the assault as a “massive combined attack” targeting power infrastructure in several oblasts.
UN human-rights monitors reported at least eight civilians killed and 34 injured nationwide in the latest energy-focused barrages.
Russia has repeatedly used winter as a weapon, trying to break morale by destroying heating, electricity and water supplies.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned Ukrainians to expect more such strikes as long as negotiations continue without a real ceasefire.
Peace plan controversy: from 28 points to 19
Alongside the fighting, diplomacy has been dominated by a US-driven peace framework first leaked as a 28-point plan.
That original draft, backed by US envoy Steve Witkoff, reportedly asked Ukraine to give up all of Donbas, cap its army and accept permanent limits on NATO ties.
After a storm of criticism in Kyiv and European capitals, negotiators in Geneva cut the plan down to 19 points.
Reporting by Visit Ukraine and the Financial Times suggests some of the most openly pro-Russian elements were removed or watered down.
Even in its revised form, the framework still appears to demand territorial concessions and military restrictions that Ukraine views as unacceptable.
Reuters says Russia wants Ukraine to yield additional frontline areas beyond the roughly 20 percent already occupied since 2022.
The US has now dropped its informal Thanksgiving deadline for a deal and admits major hurdles remain.
Analysts at CSIS argue that the new plan’s call for an immediate ceasefire could help Ukraine militarily, but only if sovereignty is preserved.
International reaction: Europe backs Ukraine, urges caution
European leaders have reacted sharply to any hint of “carving up” Ukrainian territory in back-room talks.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told lawmakers there can be no unilateral redrawing of borders by force.
She and EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas stressed there is “zero indication” that Russia truly wants peace, noting continued offensives and missile strikes.
They insist any settlement must include strong security guarantees, accountability for war crimes and no artificial limits on Ukraine’s armed forces.
Commentators in Europe have warned against confusing capitulation with peace.
One analysis in New Eastern Europe argued that a deal forcing Ukraine to surrender territory would undermine deterrence and invite future aggression.
Meanwhile, the UN human-rights office has highlighted the legal obligation of all sides to protect civilians and critical infrastructure.
It condemned Russia’s renewed strikes on energy facilities and also noted Ukrainian drone attacks that caused casualties in Russia’s Krasnodar and Rostov regions.
Strikes inside Russia and a grinding war of attrition
The conflict is increasingly crossing borders, with Ukrainian drones striking deep into Russia and strange incidents inside Russian territory.
Business Insider, citing a Ukrainian security source, reported that Russian air defences accidentally hit their own residential buildings while responding to an attack on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Ukraine says such operations target military and energy infrastructure that directly supports Russia’s war effort.
However, UN officials stress that all parties must avoid civilian harm, whether attacks occur in Ukraine or Russia.
Strategic assessments suggest Russia has gained modest territory in recent weeks but only at high cost.
Researchers at Russia Matters and other think tanks estimate Russian advances of a few hundred square kilometres since October, reflecting the slow pace of attritional warfare.
As a result, the war now hinges on endurance: Ukraine’s ability to secure long-term Western support, and Russia’s capacity to sustain losses and sanctions.
This week’s events show that missiles, drones and diplomacy are all in play, but a just and lasting peace remains distant.
Featured image: Reuters
