Bangladesh This Week: Caretaker Ruling, Hasina Verdict and Refugee Strain

Bangladesh has entered one of its most turbulent political weeks since the 2024 uprising.

Courts have reshaped the electoral system, a historic verdict has sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia, and Dhaka is again warning the world it can no longer shoulder the Rohingya crisis alone.

At the same time, economic pressures remain high despite progress under an IMF program, while climate and energy risks continue to test the country’s resilience.

As a result, Bangladesh’s politics, economy and humanitarian responsibilities are now tightly intertwined.

Caretaker system: Supreme Court ruling reshapes election roadmap

Bangladesh’s Supreme Court this week restored the nonpartisan caretaker government system that once oversaw national elections. The mechanism, first introduced in 1996 and abolished in 2011, was designed to ensure that polls are managed by a neutral interim administration rather than the ruling party. 

However, the court ruled that the restored caretaker model will not apply to the next general election, expected in early 2026. That vote will instead be organised by the current interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, who came to power after a mass uprising toppled Hasina’s government in 2024. 

Opposition parties, including the BNP, welcomed the symbolic return of the caretaker concept, which they long argued is essential for credible elections. Analysts warn, however, that uncertainty over how the ruling will work in practice could fuel fresh legal and political battles in the months ahead. 

Hasina verdict: death sentence deepens political divide

Just days before the caretaker ruling, an international crimes tribunal in Dhaka sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity linked to the deadly 2024 crackdown on student protests. Judges found her responsible for ordering or failing to stop lethal force, including drone strikes, against demonstrators during what became known as the “July revolution.” 

Hasina, who fled to India after being ousted in August 2024, rejected the verdict as politically motivated and unfair. Human rights groups and the United Nations have expressed concern about the trial’s fairness and reiterated their opposition to the death penalty, even while acknowledging the suffering of victims’ families. 

Meanwhile, Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus hailed the verdict, saying it showed that “no one is above the law,” and his government has asked India to extradite Hasina and former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal. The Awami League has been outlawed and its future is uncertain, yet Hasina still commands loyalty among many supporters, raising fears that the judgment could harden political divisions rather than heal them. 

Economy and IMF: growth slows as inflation stays high

Bangladesh’s economic challenges were also in the spotlight this week. An IMF mission concluded its latest review and said growth in the 2024–25 fiscal year had slowed to about 3.7 percent, down from 4.2 percent the previous year, reflecting the impact of the 2024 unrest, tighter policies and ongoing uncertainty. Headline inflation has eased from double-digit peaks but still sits above 8 percent year-on-year. 

The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee reaffirmed a contractionary stance, keeping policy rates high in an effort to contain price rises. Officials noted that short-term money-market rates have edged down slightly and that credit growth remains subdued, even though foreign exchange reserves have stabilised and recently ticked up to more than US$32 billion on some measures. 

For ordinary Bangladeshis, inflation in food, fuel and rent still feels painful, particularly after the economic disruption of the uprising. As a result, the interim government faces a delicate balance: it must follow IMF reforms to protect macro stability while also responding to public frustration over living costs and unemployment. 

Rohingya refugees: Dhaka tells UN the burden is “too heavy”

On the humanitarian front, Bangladesh delivered one of its strongest warnings yet about the Rohingya crisis. In a statement to the UN this week, Dhaka said it now hosts around 1.3 million Rohingya refugees, after renewed violence in Myanmar pushed an estimated 150,000 more people across the border since 2023. Officials stressed that the country “cannot bear the burden any longer.” 

The vast camps in Cox’s Bazar and on Bhasan Char island remain overcrowded, with growing concerns about trafficking, gang violence and cross-border crime. Aid agencies say funding for food, education and health services has fallen sharply, forcing repeated ration cuts and leaving refugees increasingly desperate. 

Meanwhile, US lawmakers highlighted renewed atrocities against Rohingya in Myanmar during a congressional hearing this week, calling for stronger international action and more support for host countries like Bangladesh. Dhaka is pushing for concrete steps on repatriation and burden-sharing, but officials privately admit that safe returns remain distant while Myanmar’s conflict rages. 

Energy and climate: Adani power row, rain and cyclone risks

Bangladesh’s struggle to secure reliable and affordable energy took a legal turn when the High Court ordered a pause in arbitration between the state-run Bangladesh Power Development Board and India’s Adani Power. The dispute centres on alleged overcharging and tax issues under a 2017 deal that supplies electricity from a coal plant in India to Bangladesh, covering nearly a tenth of the country’s power demand. 

The court has appointed a committee to examine whether the contract is fair, including claims that Adani’s tariffs are significantly higher than those of other regional suppliers. Adani says any disagreements should be handled by the Singapore arbitration forum named in the contract, arguing that Bangladesh’s courts lack jurisdiction. As a result, the case has become a test of how Dhaka will handle large private power deals in a period of economic strain. 

Climate pressures are also mounting. Meteorologists have warned that more low-pressure systems are likely to form in the Bay of Bengal this month, with at least one potentially developing into a cyclone, after heavy early-November rains linked to Cyclone Montha flooded parts of Dhaka. At the same time, new research teams are travelling across the coastal delta to measure how quickly land is sinking, underscoring long-term threats from sea-level rise and storm surges. 

Diplomacy and outlook: Commonwealth visit at a pivotal moment

International engagement with Bangladesh is also increasing. The Commonwealth’s new Secretary-General, Shirley Botchwey, is due to make her first official visit to the country, meeting government officials and civil-society leaders at what the organisation calls a “pivotal moment” in Bangladesh’s national journey. 

Her visit comes as Western governments and regional partners watch closely to see whether the Yunus administration can deliver a credible and inclusive election while avoiding a cycle of revenge politics. The caretaker ruling, Hasina verdict and ongoing Rohingya burden all feed into that judgement.

In the coming weeks, the interim government must manage political tensions, respond to economic pain and prepare for possible storms, both literal and political. For many Bangladeshis, this week’s headlines capture a simple reality: the fight for justice, stability and dignity is still far from over.

Featured image: AP

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