Bangladesh This Week & Last: campaign violence, price shocks, rain risks, and refugee pleas
Suzan Seherin 
Politics — election campaign begins amid violence and pressure
Bangladesh’s election campaign opened with bloodshed. Gunmen attacked in a political rally in Chittagong, killing one person and injuring others, including a candidate. Authorities promised investigations, while parties urged security guarantees for public events. However, rights groups warned that intimidation could chill participation and skew turnout.
Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, writing abroad, criticised what she called an “unaccountable elite,” arguing that democratic institutions have been weakened. Her remarks, published this week, added fuel to an already heated national debate. Meanwhile, party strategists are recalibrating messages as campaign rhetoric hardens. As a result, the tone of the race could turn more confrontational before vote day.
Economy — IMF tranche delayed; onion prices surge
On the economic front, the IMF said its next loan installment would be released only after the national polls, tying disbursement to engagement with the next government. The delay keeps reform timelines uncertain and leaves markets watching reserves and exchange rate signals. Business groups called for continuity, while economists flagged near-term liquidity strains.
Food inflation flared again as onion prices jumped more than 50 percent in Dhaka week-over-week. The Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission urged the government to open imports to cool the market. Traders blamed supply bottlenecks and weather disruptions across the region. However, import windows depend on neighbouring harvests and port logistics.
Weather & health — November rain, Cyclone Montha’s tail, and dengue
Unseasonal, record-breaking November rain submerged ripening crops in several divisions, with officials linking the deluge to lingering effects from Cyclone Montha and a well-marked low over central India. Forecasts warned of additional showers, keeping farmers anxious about Aman paddy losses and vegetable shortages. As a result, disaster officials advised caution around low-lying areas and river crossings.
The Bay of Bengal also remained active. India’s meteorological service issued squally-weather alerts for the Andaman and Nicobar region earlier in the week, underscoring broader regional risks that can spill toward Bangladesh’s coast. Meanwhile, local agencies monitored sea conditions and urged small craft to remain cautious.
Public-health risks rose with the rain. Bangladesh recorded more than a thousand new dengue cases in a single day this week, according to health bulletins. Chattogram often sees a November spike due to humidity and shifting rainfall patterns, experts say. However, vector control remains uneven, and hospitals prepared surge protocols as urban clusters grew.
Rohingya crisis — funding strains, high-level visits, and education alarm
Humanitarian funding for nearly a million Rohingya refugees remains fragile. A senior Vatican official visited the camps and appealed for renewed global solidarity, citing cuts that have eroded food and services. His comments echoed months of warnings from agencies after ration reductions earlier this year. Meanwhile, the politics of refugee leadership drew attention following the United Council of Rohang’s recent ceremony inside Kutupalong.
UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Orlando Bloom arrived for a four-day visit, spotlighting the impact of donor fatigue on children in Cox’s Bazar and Bhashan Char. Advocacy groups used the moment to push for predictable funding before the year’s end. As a result, Dhaka renewed calls for burden-sharing and safe, voluntary repatriation when conditions allow.
Education indicators remain dire. A new survey reported that only three percent of school-age Rohingya girls are enrolled in any form of schooling in Bangladesh. Barriers include space constraints, safety concerns, and curriculum limits. However, community groups say targeted funding and expanded learning centres could slow long-term harm. bdnews24.com
Agriculture & markets — crop damage fears and supply responses
Heavy rain during harvest threatens yields and complicates rural livelihoods. Early field reports described waterlogged paddy, delayed drying, and transport snags to urban markets. Farmers fear lower prices at the farm gate but higher prices for consumers, given spoilage and logistics costs. Meanwhile, officials weighed short-term import moves and stock releases to stabilise staples.
Beyond onions, traders flagged volatility across vegetables and pulses. Weather-hit supply lines raise price risks into late November, particularly if fresh rainfall overlaps with peak transport demand. As a result, analysts expect food inflation to remain sticky until new crops clear and ports normalise. However, administrative measures can still temper spikes if executed quickly.
The outlook — stability hinges on calm campaigning and steady funding
Over the next two weeks, campaign safety and messaging discipline will shape political risk. A peaceful trail would bolster investor confidence ahead of any IMF engagement with a new government. Meanwhile, weather and health will keep pressure on household budgets and hospital capacity. As a result, coordination between economic, disaster-management, and health authorities will be crucial.
For refugees, predictable financing remains the hinge. International commitments have swung through the year, but needs in the camps continue to outpace supplies. Targeted support for food, education, and protection would reduce immediate harm and improve medium-term prospects. However, without renewed donor focus, ration cuts and service gaps will deepen vulnerability through the dry season.
Image: Caritas Bangladesh
About The Author
Sultanul Arefin 
